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8 Principles to Build Attractive, Realistic Financial Projections for Startups

Financial Projections for Startups

All investors want to know where your business is headed and how their investment will help you get there. You should present attractive yet realistic financial projections when raising capital. The important thing is to approach it like you are telling a growth story about your business and make sure you can back up that story with data and analysis drawn from your financial statements. Build your projections based on the following principles, and you will be on your way to telling a solid financial story.

How to Present Financial Projections when Raising Capital

1. Use Your Historical Data as a Baseline

Historical data

Historical financials are important because they convey what you have accomplished thus far and set a foundation for the scale and efficiencies you will reach in the future. Additionally, if you have a multi-year track record, historical financials can illustrate how you manage your business and prior investments.

With historical data in hand, you can begin telling your growth story on the P&L with revenue. By building up from your most basic elements — units sold and pricing by channel — you can derive gross revenues. A deep understanding of unit economics is key to be able to plan for the future.

2. Show All Associated Expenses Required to Achieve Projected Revenue Growth

Associated expenses

gross margin declining over time? Are your incremental expenses decreasing with scale? Is your net margin increasing to align with mature comparable companies in your industry? If your revenue is projected to triple year-over-year while you’ve only doubled your fixed costs, you can really start demonstrating a path to profitability.

Top line growth is always attractive, but without gaining efficiencies down the P&L a business cannot be sustainable over the long run.

3. Connect the Dots

Connect the dots
  1. Expand your sales team?

  2. Grow your back office staff?

  3. Invest in additional product development?

  4. Hire additional key executives?

  5. Pay for a significant marketing push?

  6. Invest in infrastructure, fixed assets or significant amounts of inventory?

  7. Raise additional equity?

  8. Try to obtain debt financing?

  9. Raise equity and debt to maintain a strong balance sheet?

Answering these questions will help you determine the investments that need to be made to fuel your growth and should be a key part of your projections so an investor understands the commitment needed to catalyze growth. Show a judicial cash management approach — as they say, “treat every dollar as if it were your last.” Do this by showing a responsible cash burn and controlled spending in your projections.

Answering these questions will help you determine the investments that need to be made to fuel your growth and guide you towards the type of capital you need to raise.

4. Be Aggressive but Realistic

Aggressive but realistic

Start with a realistic base case and include an upside case that shows the potential if all the stars align. Make the projections achievable for both your company and prospective investors – all parties want to be aligned and it pays off to show new investment capital leading to scalability across the business in a relatively short period of time. Showing numbers that have a reasonable likelihood of being achieved in a reasonable scenario can be a good story to tell relative to only showing a story that shoots for the moon with numbers that could never be realistically reached.

Create a realistic baseline by diligently gathering your historical information. Attention to detail and keeping clean books from day one gives investors confidence in your future prospects. Your monthly projections should provide the granularity needed to see how you are spending investments and converting dollars into profits. If it makes sense – don’t forget to adjust for seasonality.

5. Do Your Homework and Show Your Expertise